Episode 32

Pacific Command HQ

Joint Base Hickam Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

War control is the deliberate action of war leaders to limit or restrain the outbreak, development, scale, intensity, and aftermath of war. The objective of war control is to forestall the outbreak of war or, when war cannot be avoided, to control its vertical and horizontal escalation, to strive to minimize the consequences of war, or to strive to achieve the greatest victory for the smallest cost. War control includes arms control, crisis control, control of armed conflict, and so on, and is a major component of contemporary strategic research and strategic guidance.

Xiao Tianliang, Zhanzheng Kongzhi Wenti Yanjiu [Research on the Problem of War Control], Beijing: Guofang Daxue Chubanshe [The National Defense University’s Publisher]., 2002

“Let me get this straight, they have been missing on purpose with the idea that this would deter our actions in the Pacific?”  The Admiral seemed unable to fathom the report from ONI.

“Sir, I think the red team is quoting from the attached RAND report.  See the next section, ‘Chinese strategists argue that the era of unlimited war is over, as most nations now possess the military tools to accomplish their political objectives.'”  Braverman flipped forward in the report to show the section he had just read from.

The Admiral leaned back in his chair and steepled his fingers together.  He was silent for a full five minutes.  “So, they think they are in control of this conflict and they are managing us.”

“Yes sir, I think that is the correct interpretation of this intel.”

“That explains a great deal.”

“Yes, it does.  It also explains why they seem to have discarded a nuclear response.”  It was not lost on General Braverman that Admiral Halsey himself had once used this same office.  While the situation currently in the Pacific was nowhere as dire as the situation after the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, he thought he could understand the stress and urgency that he and his staff faced at the time. 

“Well, thank God for that.”  

“Yes, sir.  However, it also means that they have a deeper set of capabilities than they have shown so far.  If their goal is to manage escalation, that implies they have further capabilities to escalate WITH.  The amount of target discrimination and fuze control implied in the attack on the Vinson is mind-boggling.”

“I am starting to think that the red team has a point here.  We are playing poker and they’re playing go.”  The admiral got up from his desk and began to pace in front of the large window, facing Pearl Harbor. 

“Excuse me sir?”

“Go.  It’s a strategy game.   I was trained to fight the Russians.  They are chess masters.  The Russians trained to fight poker players.  The Chinese are neither.  You can’t call a go player’s bluff, because he ain’t bluffing.”

Now it was Braverman’s turn to think.  “So, the question is, how do we flip the script?”

“Exactly.  Get them to play poker with us then fleece ’em.”

“And how do we do that?”

“First rule of poker, if you don’t know who the mark is, you’re the mark.”

“Sorry, Admiral, I don’t understand.”

“We need to get them to bet something they can’t afford to lose.  Then we take it away.  Let them think they are winning the game when they’re not.”

“You’re talking about Longsword, aren’t you?”

“Yes, exactly.  We raise until they think we are bluffing.  Then we lay down the four aces we’ve had up our sleeve.”

“So, we cheat.”

“Son, if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying hard enough.”