United States Cyber Command
Fort Meade, Maryland
The National Security Advisor was late. As usual. The other men in the room weren’t sure if he really was that busy or if this was just a power game to show who was really in charge. Probably both.
Finally, he arrived. “Gentlemen, I don’t have much time. What is our status?”
The General spoke up. “We are ready to go. Holding until Long Snap.”
“Jesus, that was the same status a week ago. Let’s go already.”
“Sir, the agreement was to align to Long Snap.”
The National Security Advisor made an impatient gesture. “We need to be seen to be DOING something.”
“Doing something? We just invaded North Korea, for Christ’s sake! What do you want us to do?”
“We invaded the wrong fucking country! Didn’t you see the polling on this? Nobody is happy about the invasion of North Korea. Nobody.”
“Sir, my job isn’t to do well in the polls. My job is to win wars for you.”
“Yes, for me! I speak for the President and the President is NOT HAPPY.”
The CIA deputy director leaned forward. “We need to give them more time. We are only a day behind schedule. All the assets are in place for Long Snap.”
The National Security Advisor snorted again. “They are? How the fuck do you know? This loose cannon that SecDef put in charge won’t tell the White House anything!”
The General nodded to himself. So, that was what this was all about. The Secretary of Defense and the National Security Advisor didn’t like each other. Not at all. The tensions within the White House were spilling over and could jeopardize the conduct of the war. “If I may, sir. Perhaps we should get him on the horn and ask.”
“Just like that?”
“Yes, I am sure he’d be happy to brief you and we have the equipment here in this room.” Using his secure laptop, he quickly sent a heads up message to his old friend, the Admiral. He then asked an aide to set up the secure VTC to Pearl. Everyone had a chance to grab a cup of coffee while the video conference was set up.
The image, when it came online, was crystal clear. The age of scratchy analog transmissions was long gone. The transmission of secure digital video signals over the military’s private network had become increasingly commonplace over the past few years.
The Admiral was sitting at his desk at Pearl. Nighttime in Maryland meant early morning in Pearl Harbor. “Gentlemen, how can I help you?”
The General took the lead. “Admiral, thank you very much for agreeing to meet with us on such short notice. The National Security Advisor here would like a sketch of our status on Long Snap and the overall prosecution of the war in the Pacific so we can align our efforts.”
If the Admiral was annoyed by this request, he hid it well. “I assume that you are conversant with our daily summary report that we have been generating from the outset.”
“Yes, Admiral. They are very helpful. However, perhaps a summary direct from you would give us more color.”
“Very well.” The Admiral took a moment to glance at a few papers on his desk. Completely unnecessarily. His memory was legendary in the Navy for good reason. “As of zero six-thirty zulu yesterday, Long Snap phase 2 is underway. Assets to support phase 2 have been deployed and are reporting that we should be fully deployed and ready today. If the enemy reacts as expected, we should see phase 3 within twenty-four to forty-eight hours.”
The National Security Advisor cut in. “And if the enemy DOES NOT react as expected?”
“Sir, as called out in Long Snap ops plan, we will revert to plan bravo after seven days.”
“Plan bravo?”
“Yes, as approved by the joint chiefs, plan bravo calls for a full alpha strike against the Chinese mainland. We have good targeting data, should be able to take out all their naval assets and most of the airbases within one hundred miles of the coast. All our bomber assets have been pulled back to Japan and Guam and are under stand-down. We could launch the strike in as little as forty-eight hours from now.”
“Estimated losses?”
“High. Estimate we lose half the B-52s and one-third of the B-1’s. Unknown but low risk to the B-2 fleet. Chinese casualties range from one to ten thousand depending on targeting packages chosen. Intel Red Team estimates sixty percent probability that the Chinese escalate to a nuclear exchange under this scenario.”
“Intel Red Team?”
“Yes, sir. This is the team that correctly predicted both Guam and Taiwan.”
“And how is Taiwan holding out?”
“It’s ugly. China has put three divisions across. The Taiwanese are giving them hell but it’s a losing battle unless we can close the strait again.”
“Or land a couple of divisions there ourselves.”
“Yes, sir. The current estimate is that we could hold them to a draw if we put two divisions in, casualties fifty percent or higher.”
The National Security Advisor sat back in his chair. He was a politician and was not used to the life and death details of a major war like this. Then again, who would be except a monster who has no feeling for other human beings? The “safe” path that the President wanted meant that thousands of US soldiers would die. Long Snap was a gamble, no doubt about it.
“And the overall strategic situation?”
“Our blockade of shipping is working. We have seen very little traffic in and out of their ports for the past two weeks. Taiwan is stable for the moment. They are increasing rail traffic with Russia to try and compensate but we estimate that their oil and other strategic imports are down from 70 to 80% of pre-war levels. The Taiwanese have pulled back and have enough firepower to keep the Chinese from rolling over them but not enough to push them back into the strait. The Chinese lack the sealift to support the invasion properly. The Taiwan strait is a Chinese lake at this point, we cannot put naval assets in there at acceptable risk levels. We have pressed about twenty miles into North Korea. The initial invasion plan had to be scrapped at the last minute due to some late-breaking intel, but we are now pushing a spearhead towards our primary objective. Guam is secure for now between the Aegis screen and THAAD. Japan has not had to use Aegis Ashore yet, but are at high alert along with their Aegis-equipped ships and a supporting screen of Burke-class destroyers in the Sea of Japan. Our assets are in place in Vietnam as per plan. The South China Sea is still a contested area. We lost a P-8 just yesterday but the Chinese are also taking losses. Overall, we have high confidence that we can establish air and sea superiority in the SCS within fourteen days. We have surged submarines into the area with ‘shoot on sight’ orders. The Chinese have lost at least fifty percent of their pre-war naval strength, we see no signs that they plan to sortie their one carrier but they have significant surface and submarine forces at sea.”
The National Security Advisor was very impressed. The Admiral had all these details set to memory. He had not looked at a single piece of paper or a computer screen since the initial delaying tactic with the documents on his desk.
“Admiral, what is your recommendation here?”
The Admiral paused for a moment. “Sir, my recommendation is unchanged. Long Snap is our best chance of avoiding a potentially catastrophic escalation. If this does not work, we should prepare for the worst.”
“Are you sure this is going to work?”
“No sir, I am not.” The Admiral looked grim after giving this honest, if not particularly reassuring assessment. “But it’s our best chance.”
There was an expectant pause in the room.
“Very well. You have your seven days.”
Keep em coming!