The Kidd Incident

142nd Fighter Wing, 123rd Fighter Squadron, Oregon National Guard

200 Miles South of Spratly Islands, FL 230

Tonight’s mission was different than the simple dash and shoot operations the 123rd had been engaged in thus far.  While the tactic of going after emissions sources had worked to date, it had also served to put those emission sources on alert.  Tonight, the squadron’s job was to interdict any AWACs birds within 500 miles of the Spratly Islands.

Major Wilkes wasn’t used to flying without complete information.  Normally, the Squadron was tasked with interdicting wayward civilian aircraft or the occasional Russian bird that made it down the coast from their usual stomping grounds up in Alaska.  A pure air to air asset, the F-15C’s of the wing had not seen much action in Afghanistan or any of the recent anti-terror actions.  The mission to Brunei had been the squadron’s first major combat action since being upgraded to F-15C’s in 2007.

“I have eyes on, Bear.”

“Affirm, I have them also.”

The Chinese AWACs bird was hard to miss.  With the radiation it was putting out, the F-15’s could detect it from over two hundred miles away.  Although the AIM-120Ds the squadron was carrying had a much-improved range over the AIM-120C, they couldn’t reach out the 150 miles to the AWACS current location.

“SAM radars coming up.”

“I have them.  Approaching threshold values.”

“Countermeasures active.”

“Roger countermeasures.”

Wilkes had read with great interest the after action report of the attempted Wild Weasel mission on Woody Island.  He had no intention of getting his plane or the planes of the squadron shot down.  He would close to one hundred miles, shoot and scoot.

“Redhawk four niner,  sentry seven.”

“Sentry seven, go for redhawk four niner.”

“Redhawk, we have bandits rotating at Fiery Cross and Mischief Reef.  Expect company ten zero mikes assuming constant course and speed.”

“Roger that Sentry.”

Now the situation got complicated.  Fighters rotating out of the two airfields ahead meant more targets and more risk for the squadron.  It would take the time and fuel to get up to the squadron’s altitude but not enough time.  At 200 miles, the strike was well within the squadron’s enhanced range with their FAST packs but they didn’t have an immense amount of fuel for dogfighting if it came to that.  There were no tanker aircraft within three hundred miles for obvious reasons so they needed to manage their fuel loads also.

“Redhawk lead to all Redhawks.  Your signal is buster.  Buster to max launch range.”

Increasing speed to their maximum possible using afterburners would get them into range BEFORE the Chinese fighters could engage but would also burn up precious fuel.  However, firing at max range significantly reduced their chances of hitting the distant AWACS plane.

“Redhawk lead to all Redhawks.  Fox Three.  Shoot.  Shoot.  Shoot.”

In close succession, the six F-15C’s launched four AIM-120D missiles each.  The twenty-four missiles remained emissions dark for the first twenty miles of their flight and then lit up their own radar seekers.  Finding more targets than expected, they selected the “best” target for each missile.  Two Chinese fighters were destroyed almost immediately.  The Chinese AWACS plane was able to turn away and dive down to one thousand feet, completely avoiding all the inbound missiles.

In the meantime, the F-15’s of the 123rd split into pairs, preparing to return home.

“Launch warning!!  SAM launch!  Multiple SAMs inbound.”

Immediately, the three pairs of aircraft went to full afterburner and dove down for the sea.  Most of them made it.

Pacific Command HQ

Joint Base Hickam Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

War control is the deliberate action of war leaders to limit or restrain the outbreak, development, scale, intensity, and aftermath of war. The objective of war control is to forestall the outbreak of war or, when war cannot be avoided, to control its vertical and horizontal escalation, to strive to minimize the consequences of war, or to strive to achieve the greatest victory for the smallest cost. War control includes arms control, crisis control, control of armed conflict, and so on, and is a major component of contemporary strategic research and strategic guidance.

Xiao Tianliang, Zhanzheng Kongzhi Wenti Yanjiu [Research on the Problem of War Control], Beijing: Guofang Daxue Chubanshe [The National Defense University’s Publisher]., 2002

“Let me get this straight, they have been missing on purpose with the idea that this would deter our actions in the Pacific?”  The Admiral seemed unable to fathom the report from ONI.

“Sir, I think the red team is quoting from the attached RAND report.  See the next section, ‘Chinese strategists argue that the era of unlimited war is over, as most nations now possess the military tools to accomplish their political objectives.'”  Braverman flipped forward in the report to show the section he had just read from.

The Admiral leaned back in his chair and steepled his fingers together.  He was silent for a full five minutes.  “So, they think they are in control of this conflict and they are managing us.”

“Yes sir, I think that is the correct interpretation of this intel.”

“That explains a great deal.”

“Yes, it does.  It also explains why they seem to have discarded a nuclear response.”  It was not lost on General Braverman that Admiral Halsey himself had once used this same office.  While the situation currently in the Pacific was nowhere as dire as the situation after the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941, he thought he could understand the stress and urgency that he and his staff faced at the time. 

“Well, thank God for that.”  

“Yes, sir.  However, it also means that they have a deeper set of capabilities than they have shown so far.  If their goal is to manage escalation, that implies they have further capabilities to escalate WITH.  The amount of target discrimination and fuze control implied in the attack on the Vinson is mind-boggling.”

“I am starting to think that the red team has a point here.  We are playing poker and they’re playing go.”  The admiral got up from his desk and began to pace in front of the large window, facing Pearl Harbor. 

“Excuse me sir?”

“Go.  It’s a strategy game.   I was trained to fight the Russians.  They are chess masters.  The Russians trained to fight poker players.  The Chinese are neither.  You can’t call a go player’s bluff, because he ain’t bluffing.”

Now it was Braverman’s turn to think.  “So, the question is, how do we flip the script?”

“Exactly.  Get them to play poker with us then fleece ’em.”

“And how do we do that?”

“First rule of poker, if you don’t know who the mark is, you’re the mark.”

“Sorry, Admiral, I don’t understand.”

“We need to get them to bet something they can’t afford to lose.  Then we take it away.  Let them think they are winning the game when they’re not.”

“You’re talking about Longsword, aren’t you?”

“Yes, exactly.  We raise until they think we are bluffing.  Then we lay down the four aces we’ve had up our sleeve.”

“So, we cheat.”

“Son, if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying hard enough.”