The Kidd Incident

Pacific Command HQ

Joint Base Hickam Pearl Harbor, Hawaii

“Well, Goddammit.”

While General Tom Braverman was not prone to swearing, he had to agree with The Admiral.  The concept of all-out war with China was not something that he had ever wanted to see in his lifetime despite spending over a year planning for just such an event.  Being ready for the contingency was not the same as being happy to see it occur.

“The Vinson is pretty torn up.  Her upper decks are mostly gone.  Mission kill for sure.  They are hopeful that they can get her back to Japan but there are two fleet tugs on the way just in case.  Air ops are completely down.  Most of the birds made it to the divert field safely, but several had to ditch.  The Sterett is a total loss, Bunker Hill got some survivors off before Sterett sank but at least two hundred dead.  Bunker Hill is completely Winchester on her VLS.  If the Kongo hadn’t been doing a southern exercise, we would have almost no coverage at all for the group.”

“Damn.  Scratch one flattop.  This is our worst case.”

The Admiral took a moment to compose himself.  “No, the carriers are not out of it completely.  We got too close to the mainland and the Chinese mousetrapped us.  What I don’t get are these BDA photos.  See how the blast damage comes from above?”

Braverman had wondered about this also and asked his tech weenies to look into it.  “According to the eggheads down the hall, the warheads detonated about two hundred feet above the ship.”

“That’s damn strange.”

“There are competing theories.  One group claims that the radar jammers on the carrier set the warheads off when they got close enough, the second feel that the Chinese set them off early on purpose.”

“The first crew seems a bit far fetched, why wouldn’t they just use contact fuses?  The second crew doesn’t sound much better though.”

“Apparently, they have been reading the RAND study that claims that the Chinese think they can de-escalate an ongoing conflict.”

“Ah, that crap again.  Do you believe any of that?”

“It’s possible.  The Chinese have some interesting notions of how to fight a war.”

“At any rate, it pushes us back at least five hundred miles from their coast.  And what about those F-22s down south?  If they can take down an F-22, that negates our stealth advantage.”

“We lost two F-22s down there.  Luckily, the F-35s were able to back them up. They took out the KC-135 also, we are going to need to pull the tanker fleet back to Japan and Guam.  To be fair, the F-22s illuminated the Chinese before firing, it was a tactical error but they didn’t know the Chinese were ready to shoot.  Wrong ROE at the wrong time.”

“Even if we can maintain air superiority close to shore, I am not sure if the carriers can operate in this environment. Without tanker support, we can’t get F-22s or F-35s near them. Without the Navy, we lose the Pacific.”

“Bullshit.  Pull back behind the nine-dash line and keep the carriers moving.  Use our depth and speed to fuck up their kill chain.  Surge assets into the Pacific to pen them up behind the nine-dash line.”

“Doesn’t that play to their strategic goals?”

“Not really, we will still be operating in the Pacific, once we get additional groups moving.”

“But we can’t get to their mainland.”

“The United States of America is not going to invade mainland China.  No fucking way.  Our strategic objective is to control the Chinese aggression and support our allies.  We can do that from the blue waters east of the nine-dash line.  Get Fleet to communicate that ROE Alpha is in effect.  Shoot on sight.”

“Aye aye, sir.  And the Taiwanese?”

“They’re fucked if the Chinese invade, but that’s not officially our problem.  Yet. Let’s get Korea reinforced. If the Chinese get adventurous, there is no way we stop them with what we have there now.”

“Aye aye, sir.  First things first, let’s surge our assets into the Pacific and contain the situation. It makes me nervous as hell that we have zero operational carriers in the Pacific right now.”

Based on recommendations from Pacific Command, the Secretary of Defense and Joint Chiefs started cutting orders immediately to multiple naval commands in both the Pacific and Atlantic.  Orders to various other Army and Air Force units took a little longer.

The United States prepared for war in the Pacific.  Again.

USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70)

Carrier Strike Group 1

South China Sea

The old term had been ‘showing the flag’ but the modern term was “Freedom of Navigation Operations.”  It amounted to the same thing.  FONOPS loosely translates to “take the Navy to places that others don’t want the Navy to be.”   Captain Harding didn’t really care what you called it.  The reality was that they were poking the bear with a stick.  Or in this case, a dragon.  Not the smartest of things to do, but the principal was sound.  The United States of America held the position that the South China Sea and environs were international waters.  Thus, sailing a Carrier Strike Group into that area was a perfectly normal thing to do.  In theory.

The reality was a tad different.  Team Vinson (as the strike group was sometimes known) was under close observation.  No less than ten Chinese aircraft were visible on the tactical display in the large CIC deep in the bowels of the mighty ship.  The Vinson herself had twelve aircraft in the air, two helos, an E-2C Hawkeye, a CAP of F-18C’s and a flight of F-18E’s escorting a pair of EA-18G Growlers which were attempting to gain some sigint about the Chinese spy aircraft which were attempting to do the same thing to the strike group.  The US planes were pushing into what the Chinese considered their airspace.

The Chinese were not amused by this aerial activity.  “U.S. military aircraft,” came the challenge, delivered in English in a harsh staccato. “You have violated our China sovereignty and infringed on our security and our rights. You need to leave immediately and keep far out.”

Yes, just a normal sail in international waters.  Nothing to see here.

“Fist Flight, this is Gold Eagle Actual.  Watch your ROE, we do not want an incident.”

“Fist lead, wilco.”

Micromanagement was not normally Harding’s style.  However, this was far from a normal day.  The recent Kidd incident had everyone on edge.  Officially, the Chinese had positioned it as an “overzealous commander on the scene” which was about as non-apology as an official apology got.  On the other hand, they had also said that “unwarranted provocations” of the US Navy might produce future “regrettable incidents” which basically translated to “you’re on your own.”

“Sir, we have flash traffic.  Early warning satellites report multiple heat blooms Chinese mainland.  High confidence of ASBM launch this time.”

At first, Harding didn’t believe the report.  While the Chinese had been getting aggressive of late, attacking a Carrier Strike Group in international waters was a level beyond what he thought they were willing to take on.  On the other hand, an anti-ship ballistic missile strike was the most likely way China would attack if they chose to do so.

“Launch the alert aircraft.  I want more Growlers in the air, pronto! 
Set condition one.”

The urgent command froze everyone on the bridge for one heartbeat.  Then, all hell broke loose.  “Battle Stations, Battle Stations!  Set condition one throughout the ship.”  Then the klaxon.  The simple warning meant trouble for the CSG and for the Carl Vinson.  The new Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile had proven difficult to counter; the Kidd had barely survived a very limited strike and the Chinese reportedly had thousands of them ready to go.  Hundreds of sailors raced to their battle stations, dogging watertight doors and manning their battle stations throughout the huge ship.

“Vampire, vampire, vampire: bearing 270.  Estimated time to impact two minutes!”

Harding peered intently into the tactical display in CIC.  The ballistics that the early warning bird had seen launching were already on radar from two of the escorting Aegis-equipped destroyers.  The cruiser was out of position, fifty miles to the south, watching a Chinese surface group.  Two dozen missiles were targeting them, coming from the Chinese mainland.  Normally, the aloft fighters would be part of the defense of the group.  Unfortunately, “normal” tactics had been developed to defend against Russian cruise missiles.  The goal was to have the fighters form an outer screen against cruise missiles, but this just didn’t work against ballistics since they came from pretty much straight overhead.

“Air Boss, vector those Growlers, jam their terminal attack radar if you can.  Helm, advance to flank speed.  New heading 180.”

Any aircraft that could be launched in the next few minutes would be.  If worse came to worst, the planes would be better off in the air with a chance to divert to a land base than they would be on deck, vulnerable to attack.

This was the anti-air warfare commander’s (known as Alpha Whiskey) job and Harding was mostly an observer in this fight.  In this case, Alpha Whiskey was on board the USS Bunker Hill, a Ticonderoga class cruiser with three Burke-class destroyers in support.  The captain’s job was to make sure that the Vinson was manned and ready and to get the planes off the deck.  Knocking down ballistics was the job of the Aegis-equipped members of the CSG.

“Multiple inbound missiles.  Tracking three groups now.  Three zero inbound.  Designating group bearing 270 as Vampire One.  Designating group bearing 290 as Vampire Two.  Designating group bearing  260 as Vampire three.  Looks like time on target attack from all three groups, impact one minute.  Picking up terminal guidance radar from the birds, escorts are engaging all EW systems.  Maximum gain.”

“Air boss, splash all Chinese aircraft.  ROE alpha in effect.”

Between the powerful air search radars on the Cruiser and Destroyers and the overhead coverage from the Hawkeye, they had a good picture of the incoming missile strike.  What they didn’t have was enough magazine depth to duke it out with a Chinese land-based missile force.  The US Navy, like the PLAN, had spent decades planning for and countering a cruise missile attack on their surface fleets.  Unfortunately, the advancements in ballistic anti-ship weapons had put all the pre-conflict planning out the window.  The CSG was simply not armed or prepared for such a large ballistic attack.

“Winchester!!  Escorts are Winchester on the VLS.  Missiles still inbound, thirty seconds to impact.  Brace!  Brace!  Brace!”

The three escorts launched a total of thirty SM-3 interceptors which had a relatively high hit rate, taking out twenty of the incoming missiles.  The SM-2 came next, but only got five more.  This left five missiles homing in on the Vinson.

The results were as predictable as they were unpleasant.